"THINKING" — The Most Underrated Skill in the Age of AI
As I observe conversations around me today, one thing surprises me more than anything else.
Not the rise of AI 🤖 Not the speed of change ⚡
But how quickly perfectly capable, highly intelligent humans have stopped thinking — and started outsourcing it to Mr. LLM (aka ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity… you get the drift.)
Let me be clear – I am no AI expert, and I don’t claim to understand how this technology will reshape industries over the next decade, but one thing I have learned from my limited experience of long-term investing and carefully studying the track record of some of the best investors on planet is this:
The edge in investing has never come from having more information, and it certainly doesn’t come from faster analysis. It comes from something far simpler — and far rarer — the ability to look far ahead ⏳****, when most of the world is obsessing over the next quarter (duration advantage), and the ability to stay calm and think rationally 🧠**, when everything around you feels like it’s falling apart** 📉**(psychological advantage)**.Now here’s where it gets slightly uncomfortable. If you outsource your thinking to AI, what are you really getting?
At best, a clean summary of what is already known. At worst, a reaction to what is happening right now. So, when oil prices rise, geopolitics flares up 🌍, or earnings disappoint… the natural response is to re-evaluate, reconsider, maybe even exit.
All perfectly logical. All perfectly reasonable. But often — completely misaligned with long-term investing. Because great investing is not about reacting to the present faster than your opponent. It is about thinking through tough questions such as ‘do I understand the business?’, ‘Is this business prone to disruption from any new technology / competitor?’, ‘will it continue to add value to the lives of the customers it serves in this rapidly changing world’ etc. and then having the courage to act — or not act — based on that answer.
**Selling a great business because of near-term noise is no different from selling a ₹100 note for ₹50… just because someone told you, you might get robbed tomorrow.**I might be very wrong, but in my opinion, the human mind — with its ability to combine qualitative and quantitative thinking, exercise judgment, and most importantly remain patient — is still the best “AI model” for fundamental investing.
Because based on the track record of some of the best investors of our time, superior returns are generated
Not by speed ⚡ Not by information overload 📊 Not by constant action 🔄
But by a handful of well-thought-out decisions… held over long periods of time.One of the biggest joys in my work is incredibly simple – sitting down and reading deeply about a business.
Annual reports 📖**, management commentary, history, mistakes, decisions – Slowly. Patiently. Thoughtfully.**
So, when someone tells me — “I uploaded 25 years of annual reports into ChatGPT and got the full analysis in seconds…” I don’t feel impressed. I feel… a little sad. Because in the pursuit of speed, they may have traded away the best part of the journey.
“THINKING” – The most under-rated skill in the age of AI
As I increasingly observe behaviour and hear conversations around me, I am astonished to see how fully capable and highly intellectual humans have stopped thinking and started fully relying on what Mr. LLM (aka ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity etc.) says, even for decision making.
am not any AI expert, and neither do I understand the implications that AI will have on various industries / sectors over the next decade. But one thing I have learned in my limited experience of fundamental investing in businesses for the long term is that irrespective of whichever technology comes or takes over the world, the edge (superior returns) in investing in businesses does not come from any informational or analytical advantage that an AI model might give you, the edge truly comes from the long term outlook (duration advantage), and the ability to keep calm and think rationally when everything else around you is burning down (psychological advantage).
I might be very wrong, but according to my limited understanding, if you rely on your favourite AI model to take these decisions for you, it will most probably tell you to relook at your investing decision based on whatever is happening in the short term (rising oil prices, trade disruptions etc. etc.) with no real thought on what the business might look at 10-15 years down the road. Similarly, it might tell you to sell your favourite business at the current price based on near term disruptions, without taking into account what the real intrinsic value of the business is, which might be far higher than the prevailing price (this is like selling $bills for 50 cents or lower).
The human mind and its ability to think rationally after logically taking all qualitative and quantitative factors in consideration in my opinion will remain the best AI model for fundamental investing, because superior returns in investing over a long term are generated by taking very few decisions, but taking them correctly. Speed, more information, better analysis and taking a higher number of decisions have very limited role to play as we have seen in the track record of the most successful investors of our time.
My biggest joy in my job as a fundamental investor in businesses is to spend all my time reading deeply about these businesses in the most exhaustive way possible, and I can afford that luxury only because I am very sure that I am in no rush to take the next best decision since all I need is one great decision to return a lifetime of learning, so whenever a colleague of mine tells me how productive he/she has become since they can now upload past 25 years annual reports of any company and get its analysis in seconds through ChatGPT / Claude – I really have pity for the simple joys of life that they are missing.